트레이더들은 1981년 영화 "포스트맨(집배원)은 벨을 두 번 울린다"의 영화 제목에서 차용한 표현을 종종 사용하곤 하는데요. 이 표현은 바로 투자자들에게 시장이 종종 진입하거나 빠져나올 수 있는 기회를 주곤 한다는 점을 가리킵니다. 올해 2월 초 S&P 500 지수는 장중 최고치인 4195를 기록했지만 2022년 1월부터 10월까지의 모든 하락을 되돌림했던 피보나치 되돌림 비율 50% 선을 넘어선 상태를 지속하지 못했던 시점, “포스트맨”이 처음 벨을 울렸다는 생각이 드는데요. Say Boon Lim 당사 선임 고문은 이번 글에서 미국 시장에 대한 밸류에이션 및 수익 전망을 다룰 것이며, S&P 500지수가 또 다시 피보나치 되돌림 비율 78.6% 저항선을 시험하고 있는 현 시점, 포스트맨이 막 두번째 벨을 울렸을 수도 있습니다.

Big, long-term trends could drive Developed Market bond yields much higher than the cyclical peaks that the market is currently pricing in. There are cycles and there are secular trends. If the super cycle of rates and yields has turned – off deep negative inflation-adjusted levels – then the lesser cycles could mean- revert a lot higher around long-term uptrends. And we are at this juncture at the moment, as the negative yielding bonds have literally disappeared - the global stock of negative yielding bonds had gone from a peak of US$18.4 trillion late in 2020 to zero recently. What are the true implications behind this abrupt turn of tides? In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses the big drivers for potentially much higher rates and yields for this year, and areas we are spending a lot more time monitoring, as the longer-term outlook could be far worse than just a mean reversion in nominal rates and yields as we may also be in the midst of a secular mean reversion in real government bond yields and corporate credit yields.

In the US the “triple peaks” in economic growth, earnings growth and policy stimulus will likely result in much lower returns for US equities in 2022. The persistently high inflation – which will likely run hotter in the US than Europe and Japan – is already causing greater volatility as US equities are put on tenterhooks over the timing and magnitude of rate hikes. Meanwhile US Dollar could weaken on inflation rather than strengthen on higher Treasury yields. On the other hand, Emerging Markets, usually do better during periods of Dollar weakness but this time we could see a new twist - this favours China, supported by easier financial conditions. On top of all these, how is the Omicron Virus going to impact the global markets and what are the implications for global asset allocations in 2022? Why ASEAN would be a good diversification within Emerging Markets? Further to Part 1 of our 2022 outlook piece earlier, in this Part 2 sequel our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim laid out the scenarios and discussed how we can reposition for the global shifts accordingly to address the transition to tightening and pivot from US equities.